There comes a point in every competitor’s career - no matter at what level of competition — when the pendulum swings and the competitor is suddenly, inexorably, on the downside of his or her career. Usually there’s not one specific moment you can point to, one incident or event that starts the turn, but at some point you know that the long, slow slide has begun. This summer’s downturn in fortunes has led some people to ask whether Jeff Gordon has finally, at the ripe old age of 34, reached that point. It’s a question worth examining.

In health and skills, certainly, Gordon would seem to be in his prime. While he claims not to follow the same kind of rigorous fitness regime that many of his open-wheel counterparts boast of, he certainly seems physically fit and well able to handle the grueling demands of NASCAR’s racing schedule, the longest season in competitive U.S. sports. Yet we know that physical fitness alone can’t keep a driver in his seat; Rusty Wallace and Mark Martin, both still tremendously competitive drivers, are retiring this year because they are tired of giving so much of their time to the off-track activities now necessary to maintain sponsorship and drive the marketing machine that NASCAR has become. Has Gordon, too, reached that point?

Certainly he is coming to a stage in his career where he is as tired of the "grind" as his fellow drivers have become. Like many drivers, his schedule lasts 49 weeks of the year, from Daytona testing in early January to the mandatory sponsor and manufacturer holiday party appearances and pre-season photo shoots in December. Jimmie Johnson, Brian Vickers, and Kyle Busch have all noted that some of Gordon’s first advice to them was how to manage their time, to maintain their family and friendship connections, to have a life away from the track—lessons that Gordon learned the hard way himself. Last year, during the Chase, Gordon tellingly commented that Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch needed to win the championship, whereas he wanted to win it. As he has said many times, he's accomplished more than he ever hoped to as a racer. With four championships, more than 70 wins, three Daytona 500s, four Brickyard 500s, six Southern 500s, he no longer has to prove himself to anyone. Remember that he's been racing almost continuously for nearly 30 years, and for 15 years at the highest levels of his sport. He has been near the top of the series for over a decade. In an age of increased competition, it’s unrealistic to think that such dominance can continue.

Gordon is more aware than ever of how easy it is to be injured or lose it all. The evidence all suggests that after Dale Earnhardt’s death, he made some major changes in how he lived his personal life, taking more time for friends, for travel, and for the opportunities he once said he’d put off till “later.” Four years later, after the loss of so many close friends in the Martinsville plane crash, especially Ricky Hendrick (who regarded Gordon as a big brother), you wonder if he’s contemplating even more changes. Beyond exploring new personal relationships, he’s exploring a wide range of post-racing enterprises such as team ownership, a wine label, a role in developing a reality TV show, more high-end endorsements and media appearances. All of these notes suggest that life after racing is looming larger and larger on his radar.

And that’s understandable. Given the struggles his team has gone through in the last several months, racing isn't fun for Gordon right now, and he's always said that he'll stop racing when it isn't fun and he is no longer competitive. NASCAR-mandated changes in the cars and competition changes that resulted in part from Hendrick Motorsports’ perceived domination in engineering, engine development, and competition have made the cars less comfortable for him. To date he hasn’t found a combination that gives him that unbeatable feel he’s had in the past. As he’s fought the race cars, his lack of success, especially on the 1.5 mile tracks, has brought calls from fans for changes in the race team. The ensuing controversy has increased the stress level, as expectations remain sky-high and the deadline for making the Chase looms larger on the horizon.

Only Gordon can decide whether his heart is fully in the sport anymore. We’ve seen flashes of it at Daytona and Martinsville, where he seemed totally engaged with the car, the team, and the struggle. Disappointing days like Chicago, though, have led some to speculate that Gordon’s competitive fire isn’t what it once was. Then reports surfaced that Gordon responded to a Mike Bliss comment about his team with his fists — a sure sign that the fire still burns - and the team and the driver seemed to regain their focus. At New Hampshire the following week, only a freak mechanical malfunction prevented a strong finish after the team ran near the front most of the day. A top 15 at Pocono and a top 10 at the Brickyard are hopeful signs of a new turnaround. But Gordon himself is cautious about the turnaround; he knows there is much further to come. And not even all the heart and focus in the world can stop the inevitable advances of time.